크랩스 연속 롤 확률 통계는 크랩스에서 슈터가 7을 굴리지 않고 연속으로 주사위를 굴릴(Roll) 확률을 말합니다. 크랩스에서 주사위를 던지는 플레이어를 슈터(Shooter)라 부릅니다. 다른 카지노 게임과 달리, 크랩스는 슈터가 7을 굴리지 않으면 계속 주사위를 던질 수 있습니다. 7이 나오면 세븐 아웃(Seven Out)이 되어 패배하고 다음 슈터의 차례로 넘어갑니다.
크랩스는 7의 출현 확률이 가장 높기 때문에, 7이 나오지 않은 채 연속으로 주사위를 굴릴 수 있다는 것은 곧 슈터에게 큰 행운이 따라준다는 것을 의미합니다. 그래서 세계 카지노는 1시간 이상 연속으로 주사위를 굴리는 사람들을 모아 골든 암 클럽(Golden Arm Club)에 등록합니다. 크랩스 게임의 명예의 전당(Hall of Fame)과 같은 것입니다.
크랩스 연속 롤 확률
크랩스 연속 롤 확률 자체는 계산 방법이 간단합니다. 주사위를 n회 굴렸을 때 7이 나올 확률과 때까지 7이 나오지 않을 확률을 구하면 됩니다. 모든 확률은 이전의 횟수가 다음 횟수에 영향을 미치는 종속 시행(Dependant Trial)입니다.
n회 주사위를 던져 7이 나오지 않을 확률 = ( 5 ÷ 6 )n
n회 주사위를 던지고 n+1 차례에 7이 나올 확률 = ( 5 ÷ 6 )n × ( 1 ÷ 6 )
예를 들어 주사위를 4번 굴렸을 때까지 7이 나오지 않을 확률은 66.7352%입니다. 4번째 굴렸을 때 66.7352% 확률로 5번째 굴릴 기회가 주어진다는 의미입니다. 그리고 5번째 주사위를 굴릴 때 7이 출현할 확률은 9.1223%입니다.
1~50회 크랩스 연속 롤 확률
|횟수||7 출현 확률||7 이외 확률|
51~100회 크랩스 연속 롤 확률
|횟수||7 출현 확률||7 이외 확률|
101~150회 크랩스 연속 롤 확률
|횟수||7 출현 확률||7 이외 확률|
151~200회 크랩스 연속 롤 확률
|횟수||7 출현 확률||7 이외 확률|
크랩스 연속 롤 확률 예시
1989년 5월 28일 라스베이거스의 한 카지노에서 스탠리 후지타케(Stanley Fujitake)는 약 3시간 6분 동안 단 한 번도 7이 나오지 않았습니다. 이 시간 동안 그가 주사위를 연속으로 굴린 횟수는 118회입니다. 그리고 119번째에 드디어 7이 나오고 차례를 넘겼습니다. 이는 크랩스 게임의 전설로 남아, 골든 암 클럽의 개설을 촉발한 계기가 되었습니다. 118회 동안 한 번도 7이 나오지 않을 확률은 0.000003172938%입니다. 한국의 로또 당첨률이 0.0000122773804%이니, 로또에 386번 당첨될 확률입니다.
현재 세계 기록은 2009년 5월 23일 패트리샤 드마우로(Patricia Demauro)가 4시간 18분 동안 기록한 154회입니다. 154회 연속 7이 나오지 않을 확률은 0.00000001542814%로, 로또에 8만 번 당첨될 확률입니다. 실로 어마어마한 확률이기 때문에, 황금 팔(Golden Arm)이라는 칭호를 받기에 부족함이 없습니다.
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